Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Agenda for May 7-8 Meeting of 2015 Social Security Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods

The 2015 Social Security Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods will hold a two-day public meeting on Thursday and Friday, May 7th and 8th.  On Thursday, May 7 the meeting will be from 9:00am to 5:00pm, and on Friday May 8 from  8:30am to 4:00pm. The meeting will be held in the offices of the Social Security Advisory Board (400 Virginia Ave S.W., Suite 625, Washington, DC).

Meeting Agenda
8:30-9:00  Executive Session
9:00- 10:30    Mortality

Presentation by Gary King, Albert J. Weatherhead III University Professor at Harvard University; Konstantin Kashin, Department of Government, Harvard University; and Samir Soneji, Assistant Professor of The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice Discussion
10:30-10:45  Break
10:45-12:15  Inflation and Interest Rates   
  Discussion led by Peter Diamond and Jeff Brown
  OCACT comments
12:15-12:45   Lunch
12:45-1:45    Immigration (finalize specific recommendations)
  Discussion led by Michael Teitelbaum
1:45-3:15   Mortality II
  Presentation by Sam Preston, Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania
  OCACT comments
3:15-3:30  Break
3:30-5:00   Replacement Rates (finalize specific recommendations)
  Discussion led by Peter Diamond/Jeff Brown
  OCACT comments

Friday, May 8, 2015
8:30-10:00   Labor Force Participation (finalize specific recommendations)
  Discussion led by Katharine Abraham/Claudia Goldin
  OCACT response
Unemployment Rate: New
  Discussion led by Katharine Abraham
10:00-10:15   Break
10:15-11:45  OCACT questions
  Taxable share of total wages: stabilize? go back up? or keep dropping?
o  Discussion led by David Autor
o  OCACT response
  Mortality differentials by earnings/education
o  Discussion led by Sam Gutterman
o  OCACT response
  Remaining issues from OCACT:
o  How to project when at peak or trough of economic cycle?
o  How to project average benefit levels for future beneficiaries?
11:45-12:15  Lunch
12:15-1:45  Uncertainty (finalize specific recommendations)
  Discussion led by Joe Silvestri
1:45-2:00  Break
2:00-3:00  Infinite Horizon: New
  Discussion led by Jeff Brown/Sam Gutterman
3:00–4:00    Fertility II
  Comments by Sam Gutterman
  Ron Rindfuss response
4:00-4:30   Executive Session

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