Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Why the Government Needs to Budget over the Infinite Horizon

From the NCPA’s daily policy digest.

 

Why the Government Needs to Budget over the Infinite Horizon

June 19, 2013

How far into the future should governments budget? Economic theory has a clear and rigid answer. But it's not one economists like to give, because it's not one people easily comprehend and it's not one that politicians, whose attention most economists covet, like to hear. The answer is that governments need to budget out to infinity, says Laurence Kotlikoff, a senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis and economist at Boston University.

Infinity is a very long time. But economic theory also tells us that in budgeting out to infinity, we should place less weight on distant government expenditures and tax receipts. Specifically, we should include in our budgeting not actual future expenditures and taxes, but their present values.

  • Present value stands for the value right now, in the present. And the value right now of getting $1 in the future is smaller the longer you have to wait for it.
  • Take the just-released 2013 Trustees Report on Social Security's long-run finances. They claim an infinite horizon fiscal gap of $23.1 trillion separating the system's projected costs and taxes net of its trust fund.
  • This massive shortfall, which grew a whopping 8 percent last year, is 50 percent larger than U.S. gross domestic product and almost twice the federal debt held by the public.
  • Social Security began reporting its infinite horizon fiscal gap 2003. Back then it was $10.5 trillion. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the gap's risen 74 percent leaving the system in far worse shape than when the 1983 Greenspan Commission "fixed" it.

The Greenspan Commission, like the current Trustees, looked out only 75 years. In so doing, it ignored not just the 30 years between 2057 and 2087 now in the current 75-year window, but all the years after 2087, when today's and tomorrow's children will be alive.

  • For the U.S. government as a whole, the infinite horizon fiscal gap is a whopping $222 trillion.
  • Its elimination requires not a 32 percent immediate and permanent tax hike in Social Security FICA taxes or a 22 percent immediate and permanent cut in Social Security benefits, but either a 64 percent immediate and permanent tax hike in all federal taxes or a 40 percent immediate and permanent cut in all expenditures apart from servicing official debt.

So, Social Security's enormous fiscal problem is just a molehill in front of a mountain of horrendous obligations our politicians and their "trustees" are ignoring with their careful choice of words and their finite budgeting horizons.

Source: Laurence Kotlikoff, "Why the Government Needs to Budget over the Infinite Horizon," Yahoo! Finance, June 13, 2013.

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Tuesday, June 18, 2013

New paper: “The Impact of Interest Rates on the National Retirement Risk Index”

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has released “The Impact of Interest Rates on the National Retirement Risk Index,” by Alicia H. Munnell, Anthony Webb, and Rebecca Cannon Fraenkel.

The brief’s key findings are:

  • The National Retirement Risk Index shows that changes in interest rates have only a modest effect on retirement preparedness for three reasons:
    • Most households have relatively little financial wealth to annuitize.
    • The effect on annuity income is muted, because the principal portion of the annuity payout is unaffected by interest rates.
    • Changes in the annuity income from a reverse mortgage are partly offset by changes in the amount that can be borrowed.
This brief is available here. Read more!

Is the Social Security shortfall overstated?

PBS’s Paul Solmon talks to Boston College economists Alicia Munell. With video! Check it out here.

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Friday, June 14, 2013

New papers from the Social Science Research Network

"The Relationship between Job Characteristics and Retirement Savings in Defined Contribution Plans During the 2007-2009 Recession"
Monthly Labor Review, 136(5), pp.3-16, 2013

CHRISTOPHER R. TAMBORINI, U.S. Social Security Administration
Email: Chris.Tamborini@ssa.gov
PATRICK PURCELL, Government of the United States of America - Social Security Administration
Email: patrick.purcell@ssa.gov
HOWARD IAMS, U.S. Social Security Administration
Email: Howard.m.iams@ssa.gov

Pension trends in the United States, marked by the movement toward defined contribution (DC) plans, raise questions about the individual characteristics that influence retirement saving behavior. This study examines how DC participants’ industry and employer characteristics relate to the prevalence of reduced retirement account contributions in a time of severe recession (2007-2009). Data come from a restricted-use file that matches workers in the 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to their W-2 tax records received by the Social Security Administration. Multivariate probit models indicate several job-related factors, most notably a decline in real earnings, were linked to declines in participants’ contributions to defined contribution retirement plans during the recession of 2007–2009; employer size, occupation, and industry-specific employment losses, among other characteristics, were also associated with changes in retirement plan contributions.

"Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China"
UBS Center Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 1, November 2012

ZHENG MICHAEL SONG, Fudan University - School of Economics
Email: zsong@fudan.edu.cn
KJETIL STORESLETTEN, Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES), University of Oslo - Department of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Email: KJETIL@IIES.SU.SE
YIKAI WANG, University of Zurich
Email: yikai.wang@iew.uzh.ch
FABRIZIO ZILIBOTTI, University of Zurich, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
Email: zilibott@iew.uzh.ch

Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient issues in contemporary China. China’s aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results.

"Don't Raise Social Security Taxes: But If It's Necessary, Here's How"
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, No. 1, January 2013

ANDREW G. BIGGS, American Enterprise Institute
Email: andrew.biggs@aei.org

As the debt-ceiling debate begins, congressional Republicans will demand spending cuts to counter any increase in the debt limit. These spending cuts are likely to include entitlement reforms, with Social Security, particularly, as a prime target. Most congressional Democrats might favor payroll tax increases to make Social Security solvent. But higher taxes discourage work and personal saving and encourage early retirement, with negative consequences for the economy. Although these increases clearly are not the best way to solve America’s overall entitlement problem, they may be necessary to consider if an agreement is to be reached. If so, payroll tax increases should be levied across the board, not merely on high earners, to reduce the economic impact and make all Americans aware of the costs of the benefits they all receive.

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Thursday, June 13, 2013

A guide to the 2013 Social Security Trustees Report

From public trustee Chuck Blahous, over at e21. Including one chart I particularly like, for those who downplay the need for action.  Check out the whole article.

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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Does retirement hurt your health? Or are the unhealthy more likely to retire?

Peter Orszag’s new Bloomberg column explores whether working longer will make you healthier. Interesting stuff.

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New papers from the Social Science Research Network

SOCIAL SECURITY, PENSIONS & RETIREMENT INCOME eJOURNAL

"Limited Computational Ability and Social Security"
International Tax and Public Finance, 20(3), 414-433 (2013)

FRANK CALIENDO, Utah State University
Email: frank.caliendo@usu.edu
T. SCOTT FINDLEY, Utah State University
Email: tscott.findley@usu.edu

We revisit the role of social security in countering inadequate saving for retirement. We compute the optimal social security tax rate for households who lack the computational ability to solve dynamic optimization problems. Instead, they follow the simple rule of thumb of consuming and saving a fixed fraction of disposable income. This departs from the tradition of computing the optimal tax rate when households suffer from some type of behavioral bias yet possess the ability to solve dynamic optimization problems. Our general equilibrium model is calibrated to the moments of the distribution of saving rates in the US, and our results are generally supportive of a social security program as large as the one in the US.

"Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions"
MEA Discussion Paper No. 265-12

TABEA BUCHER-KOENEN, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
Email: bucher-koenen@mea.mpisoc.mpg.de
SEBASTIAN KLUTH, Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
Email: kluth@mea.mpisoc.mpg.de

One important parameter in the decision process when buying a private annuity is individuals´ subjective life expectancy, because it directly influences the expected rate of return. We examine the market for private annuities in Germany and evaluate potential selection effects based on subjective life expectancy. First individuals are pessimistic about their life span compared to the official life tables. Second we find a significant selection effect based on subjective life expectancy for women who invest in private annuity contracts - so called Riester pensions. For men there seems to be no difference in subjective life expectancy by Riester ownership. Comparing the size of this selection effect with the underlying loading in life expectancy charged by the insurance industry shows that the latter appears to be in line for women but very high for men. Our findings have strong policy implications. On the one hand misperceptions about longevity risk might prevent individuals from providing sufficiently for retirement. On the other hand mandated unisex tariffs might especially discourade men from investing in Riester pensions, for them premiums in life expectancy are particularly high compared to subjective expectations.

"Backing Out of Private Pension Provision - Lessons from Germany"
MEA Discussion Paper No. 262-12

MICHAEL ZIEGELMEYER, Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Max Planck Society for the Advancement of the Sciences - Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy
Email: michael.ziegelmeyer@bcl.lu
JULIUS NICK, University of Mainz
Email: junick@mail.uni-mannheim.de

Financing pensions in the EU is a challenge. Many EU countries introduced private pensions schemes to compensate declining public pensions levels due to reforms made necessary by demographic change. In 2001, Germany introduced the Riester pension. Ten years after introduction the prevalence rate of this voluntary private pension scheme approximates 37%. However, numerous criticisms raise doubts that the market for Riester products is transparent. Using 2010 German SAVE survey, this paper investigates for the first time terminated and dormant Riester contracts on a houshold level. Respectively 14,5% and 12,5% of households who own or have owned a Riester contract terminated it or stopped paying contributions. We find that around 45% of terminated or dormant Riester contracts are caused at least partly by product-related reasons, which is significantly higher than for endowment life insurance contracts. Uptake of a new contract after a termination is more likely if termination is product-related. Nevertheless, after termination 73% of households do not sign a new contract, which can have serious long-term consequences for old-age income. Households with low income, low financial wealth or low pension literacy are more likely to have terminated or dormant contracts. Low income and low financial wealth households also have the lowest prevalence rate of Riester contracts and are higher risk of old-age poverty.

"The 'Defined Ambition' Pension Plan: A Dutch Interpretation"
Rotman International Journal of Pension Management, Vol. 6, No. 1, 2013

NIELS KORTLEVE, PGGM Investments
Email: Niels.Kortleve@pggm.nl

As in many other countries, recent developments in demographics and financial markets are having a serious impact on pension systems and contracts in the Netherlands. For example, people living longer and being in good health is a major joint achievement of our welfare states and of medical science. However, these achievements demand a new approach to pension provision when tackling both longevity and aging societies. Traditional occupational DB pension provision has become too expensive for plan sponsors, and new solutions need to be found. On top of these trends we see an increasing individualization in European societies: people no longer participate in (mandatory) collective systems for the sake of solidarity alone; there needs to be a benefit for all. Sharing comparable risks at fair prices and costs has historically been well accepted, but redistribution of welfare in the name of inter-generational solidarity brings more discussion to the table. This article describes a new Dutch pension contract designed to address these challenges.

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