The headline of Jed Graham's Investors Business Daily piece -- "Why The Social Security Trustees Can't Be Trusted" -- is over the top, but he hits at an interesting question: Do the Trustees' projections for Social Security's financing health rely on excessively optimistic assumptions regarding economic growth?
In the past they've been accused of being excessively pessimistic, a charge I defended them against at the time, but I believe there may be something to Graham's case -- and that has repercussions beyond merely how long we expect Social Security's trust fund to last. I'll be writing on that in the near future, but in the meantime check out Jed's piece and join the argument here.
Read more!
Friday, July 31, 2015
Graham: Social Security Trustees Overstate Economic Growth
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Washington Post: Reform Disability, Not Just Refinance It
The Washington Post's editorial board weighs in on Social Security Disability, arguing that -- in addition to merely keeping the program solvent -- policymakers also need to reform the program to make it work better:
"The problem is that SSDI is far from functioning optimally; while most of the program’s rising cost is, indeed, due to demographics, not all of it is. As recent research in labor economics has shown, some of the growth is due to post-1984 program rules that made it easier to claim disability on the basis of mental or musculoskeletal ailments. Perversely, SSDI provides employers no incentive to keep individuals at work, earning wages, while providing those who get benefits no incentive to return to the workforce. As economist David Autor of MIT has written, “the SSDI program spends too few societal resources helping individuals with disabilities to remain employed and too many resources supporting the long-term dependency of individuals who could be self-sufficient with . . . appropriate accommodation and support.”Check out the whole piece here. Read more!
No Social Security COLA for 2016?
My former SSA collague Jason Ficthner of the Mercatus Center, writes for Marketwatch on the prospect that Social Security won't pay a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) in 2016.
Lost in the news surrounding the release of the 2015 Social Security Trustees report is the likelihood that Social Security beneficiaries won't see a cost-of-living adjustment increase, or COLA, in 2016. According to the Trustees, Social Security beneficiaries can expect to receive a COLA increase of 0.0 percent. That's right ... a goose egg.Why? Well, not much inflation. Check out Jason's piece for more details.
Side note: here's a New York Times piece on the COLA I wrote with Alicia Munnell back in 2010, when beneficiaries also faced the prospect of a zero COLA. Of all the things I've written -- including some that in retrospect were incendiary and probably ill-considered -- none produced as strong and negative response as this piece. Some of the emails I received were scary.
Read more!
New paper: “Social Security’s Financial Outlook: The 2015 Update in Perspective”
The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has released a new Issue
in Brief:
- The 2015 Trustees Report shows little change from last year:
- Social Security’s 75-year deficit declined modestly from 2.88 percent to 2.68 percent of payroll.
- The deficit as a percent of GDP remains at about 1 percent.
- Trust fund exhaustion moved back slightly from 2033 to 2034, after which payroll taxes still cover about three quarters of promised benefits.
- The shortfall is manageable, but action should be taken soon to restore confidence in the program and give people time to adjust to needed changes.
Leading House Dem Proposes Bill to Merge Trust Funds
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA) has introduced legislation that would merge the Social Security retirement and disability trust funds. The purpose of the merge is to reallocate revenues from the retirement to the disability plan, which would forestall the disability plan's insolvency, projected for late 2016. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has a nice blog post summarizing the issues surrounding a trust fund merger.
But I'll be more blunt: merging the trust funds is an effort to -- almost literally -- paper over the larger policy problems with the Disability Insurance program. Yes, DI is suffering financially due to population aging and the larger number of women who qualify for benefits.
But if these were the only factors, it's unlikely we'd have seen such a large shift in the causes of disability applications from things like circulatory disorders (think heart disease) to mental and musculoskeletal disorders. Congressional changes in eligibility rules in the 1980s made it easier to apply for benefits based on those latter types of ailments.
It's also unlike we would have seen the shift in applicants toward less-educated, less-skilled workers had loosened eligibility rules, combined with stagnating wages for working-class individuals, made DI benefits more attractive.
But living on DI isn't an attractive life. You can survive, but only just. And you'll never get ahead, even modestly. It's not a life you'd wish for someone if there were any good alternatives. And there are. A substantial number of studies show that many DI beneficiaries have significant ability to work. If we reward work -- say, by making the EITC more generous -- and require that DI applicants first go through rehabilitation and re-employment training, we can shift the incentives toward staying in the workforce
But that's only going to happen if we decide to grapple seriously with disability reform. Rep. Becerra's bill to paper over the DI program's problems indicated that such an effort isn't likely.
Read more!
Friday, July 24, 2015
New papers from the Social Science Research Network
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Working Paper No. 2015-13
Email: bbosworth@brookings.edu
KAN ZHANG, Brookings Institution
Email: KZhang@brookings.edu
The paper finds that: There is strong statistical evidence in both the SIPP and HRS of a growing inequality of mortality risk by SES across birth cohorts from 1910 to 1961. Growing inequality in mortality risk is evident using all four indicators of SES, but it is strongest for the measures based on career earnings and educational attainment. The secular changes in differential mortality are very large, but their influence on the length of time for which people receive benefits has been dampened by legal restrictions on early retirement for low-SES individuals and by voluntary postponement of retirement at the top of the distribution. Self-reported health status is a highly significant predictor of mortality risk, but its inclusion in the statistical models has only a marginal effect on the evidence of differential mortality operating through the various SES indicators. The combination of survey measures of the various SES indicators and the administrative records covering earnings, death records, and OASDI benefits provides a particularly large and rich data set for the analysis of mortality experience and its implications for the distribution of benefits.
The policy implications of the findings are: Indexing the retirement age to increases in average life expectancy to stabilize OASDI finances may have substantial unintended distributional consequences, because most mortality gains have been concentrated among workers with relatively high SES.
Journal of Consumer Affairs, 2015 Forthcoming
Email: carmeley@gmail.com
DANA CARMEL, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev - Department of Psychology
Email: bomzedana@gmail.com
DAVID LEISER, Dept. of Psychology - Ben Gurion University of the Negev
Email: dleiser@bgu.ac.il
AVIA SPIVAK, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev - Department of Economics
Email: avia@bgumail.bgu.ac.il
Jed Meers, 'Shifting the Place of Social Security: Welfare Reform and Social Rights under the Coalition Government's Austerity Programme' (2015)
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Summary of 2015 Trustees Report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
The CRFB has produced a detailed but still readable summary of the 2015 Social Security Trustees Report, which was released yesterday. The report projected a small improvement in the program's finances versus the 2014 Report, with the combined trust funds projected to last an additional year and the long-term actuarial deficit slightly reduced.
The the Trustees still project that Social Security isn't close to financially sustainable without reforms. In particular, the Disability Insurance trust fund is projected to run out next year.
Click here to read their whole report.
Read more!
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Upcoming Event: "What’s the News in the 2015 Social Security Trustees Report?"
Understanding Today’s Social
Security Trustees Report
Two new resources are available from the Academy to help journalists, Hill
staff, researchers, policy analysts, advocates, and business leaders interpret
findings in the new Social Security Trustees Report:- Social Security Finances:
Findings of the 2015 Trustees Report: A brief
summarizing the 2015 Social Security Trustees Report, released
today.
- Tomorrow’s (7/23) event, What’s the News in the 2015 Social
Security Trustees Report?, offers an in-depth discussion
of the new projections with Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary of the Social
Security Administration, and additional expert speakers.
What’s the News in the 2015 Social Security Trustees Report?
When: July 23, 10:00 – 11:30 A.M.
Where: Brookings Institution • Falk Auditorium
1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Washington, DC, 20036
On-site registration is available.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
New issue brief: "Does the Social Security 'Statement Add Value?"
- To help workers better plan for retirement, the Social Security
Administration provides a Statement with personalized
benefit estimates.
- Surveys have explored how workers view the Statement,
and research studies have examined its effectiveness.
- The results indicate that workers generally consider the Statement
a valuable resource, and it improves their benefit knowledge.
- At
the same time, studies have not found any effect on workers’ Social
Security claiming behavior.
Lunch event TODAY: Retirement & Savings Foundation with Howard Iams of SSA
Join us on Tuesday, July 21 at noon
with Howard Iams of the Social Security Administration discussing
This paper was a co-authored by Howard Iams, Jules Lichtenstein, and Irena Dushi
Noon - 1:00 p.m.
RSVP
Location:
Americans for Tax Reform
722 12th Street, NW
7th FLOOR
Washington, D.C. 20005
Lunch will be provided.
This is a widely attended event.
Irena Dushi is an economist with the Office of Policy Evaluation and Modeling, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES), Office of Retirement and Disability Policy (ORDP), Social Security Administration (SSA).
Jules Lichtenstein is a senior economist with the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy. Read more!
Monday, July 20, 2015
New papers from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Does
Protecting Older Workers from Discrimination Make It Harder to Get Hired? Evidence from Disability Discrimination Laws
by David Neumark, Joanne Song, Patrick Button
- #21379 (AG LS)
Friday, July 17, 2015
Should we eliminate Social Security's delayed retirement credits?
Individuals who delay retirement receive a higher Social Security benefit. Since Social Security benefits are paid for life, this means that a person who delays retirement is "purchasing" a large annuity from the government. This means the government takes on greater mortality risk. Does this make sense?
Writing in The Hill, Brenton Smith argues no:
When DRC was created in 1972, the annuity market may have forced the government to assume a monopoly role. The past is the past. Today, the government’s role is completely unnecessary. There is a robust annuity market today that could support retirees with an expanded range of choices.Click here to read the whole article. Read more!
The problem for Americans with this rule is risk. Annuities in the private sector are priced daily – every day. The government does not re-price the annuity daily, weekly, monthly, or even yearly. The last time that the government changed the pricing for the annuities issued by Social Security was in 1983. Pricing is a tri-decennial event.
New papers from the Social Science Research Network
Email: bbosworth@brookings.edu
GARY BURTLESS, Brookings Institution, Boston College - Retirement Research Center
Email: GBURTLESS@BROOK.EDU
MATTAN ALALOUF, Independent
Email: malalouf@brookings.edu
The paper finds that:
-- Despite the shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, there is little evidence that the annuity-like income share of total income has fallen for aged families – and, in particular, for low-income aged families – over the past three decades.
-- This basic result remains unchanged when we consider more comprehensive income definitions and when we focus on aged families with retired heads of family.
-- Nonetheless, many middle- and high-income aged families would experience a sizeable increase in monthly income if they annuitized their wealth.
The policy implications of the findings are:
-- Concerns that reduced rates of annuitization will lead retirees to spend down their assets at a too-rapid rate seem overblown or at least premature; there is little evidence that the share of income derived from annuity-like income sources has declined.
-- Contrary to a widespread fear, the shift from DB to DC workplace pensions has not reduced the share of retirement income that consists of relatively secure, annuity-like income flows that will last as long as aged breadwinners and their spouses survive.
Email: bbosworth@brookings.edu
GARY BURTLESS, Brookings Institution, Boston College - Retirement Research Center
Email: GBURTLESS@BROOK.EDU
KAN ZHANG, Brookings Institution
Email: KZhang@brookings.edu
The paper finds that:
-- There is strong statistical evidence in the HRS of a growing inequality of mortality risk by SES among more recent birth cohorts compared with cohorts born before 1930.
-- Both educational attainment and career earnings as constructed from Social Security records are equally useful indicators of SES, although the distinction in mortality risk by education is greatest for those with and without a college degree.
-- There has been a significant decline in the risk of dying from cancer or heart conditions for older Americans in the top half of the income distribution, but we find no such reduction of mortality risk in the bottom half of the distribution.
-- The inclusion of the behavioral variables and health status result in substantial improvement in the predictions of mortality, but they do not identify the sources of the increase in differential mortality.
The policy implications of the findings are:
-- Indexing the retirement age to increases in average life expectancy to stabilize OASDI finances may have unintended distributional consequences, because most mortality gains have been concentrated among workers in the top half of the earnings distribution.
-- The fact that we cannot identify the sources of the increase in differential mortality contributes to uncertainty about the distributional effects of increases in the retirement age in future years.
Center for Retirement Research Working Paper No. 2015-11
Email: karamcheva@gmail.com
APRIL YANYUAN WU, Boston College - Center for Retirement Research
Email: wuuv@bc.edu
ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Boston College - Carroll School of Management
Email: crr4381@bc.edu
The paper found that: While the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance program still distributes lifetime income from singles to couples, the transfers appear to be shrinking over time. Nevertheless, couples are still projected to have a higher benefit/tax ratio, a lower median net tax rate, and a greater likelihood of receiving positive net transfers from the system compared to those who are never married or divorced. The increased labor force participation and earnings of women have contributed significantly to the decline in redistribution from men to women, and from singles to couples, while the effect of declining marriage rates has only a modest effect.
The policy implications of the findings are: Family benefit provisions within the Social Security program can have a significant impact on various measures of redistribution. Policymakers may find the results of this paper helpful in evaluating any reform proposals that would change these provisions.
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College Working Paper No. 2015-12
Email: anbelbas@gmail.com
MASHFIQUR KHAN, Boston College - Center for Retirement Research
Email: khanmf@bc.edu
ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Boston College - Carroll School of Management
Email: crr4381@bc.edu
ANTHONY WEBB, Boston College - Center for Retirement Research
Email: webbaa@bc.edu
The paper found that: About 10 percent of workers between the ages of 55 and 69 experienced steep cognitive decline over a 10-year period. Workers experiencing steep cognitive decline were more likely to “downshift” to a less demanding job or retire than workers experiencing no cognitive decline. Workers experiencing steep cognitive decline retired significantly earlier than planned, compared to workers who experienced no change in cognitive ability. Workers without cognitive reserves were more likely to exit the workforce and retire earlier than planned, compared to workers with cognitive reserves.
The policy implications of the findings are: Cognitive decline might prevent a significant minority of older individuals from working to their planned retirement ages, and thus should be considered when assessing reforms that incent delayed retirement. Policies that support “downshifting” to a cognitively less demanding job might help workers at risk of steep cognitive decline to remain in the labor force. Further research is needed to identify whether workers in specific occupations are more susceptible to age-related decline than others, and whether anything can be done to moderate the effect of age-related decline in work ability.
Email: e.platanakis@icmacentre.ac.uk
CHARLES SUTCLIFFE, University of Reading - ICMA Centre
Email: C.M.S.Sutcliffe@rdg.ac.uk
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Upcoming Event: McCrery-Pomeroy SSDI Solutions Conference
McCrery-Pomeroy SSDI Solutions Conference
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
8:45 am – 5:00 pm
Breakfast will be served at 8:00 am
Post-conference reception from 5:00 pm- 6:30 pm
District Architecture Center
421 7th St NW, Washington, DC 20004
District Architecture Center
421 7th Street NW
Washington, DC 20004
Tuesday, August 4 2015
DRAFT Agenda – Please check back for additional speakers and other information
Christian, Hildred, Krent, and Mazerski – Transitional benefits for a small subset of SSDI beneficiaries with disabilities likely to experience medical improvement
Fichtner and Seligman – A system for partial disability benefits
Aaron, Aghabi, Butz, and Jacobson – Exploring alternative definitions of disability
Ben-Shalom, Mann, and Stapleton – Integrated employment support and eligibility determination system
Burton, Christian, and Wickizer – Expanding community-focused work and health services
Kerksick, Riemer, and Williams – Using transitional jobs and tax incentives to encourage employment
Papers discussed:
Che, Collins, Constantin, Porcino, and Zhou – Reducing CDR backlogs
Dubin – Streamlining the determination process
Engel, Glendening, and Wolfe – Exploring changes to the SSDI adjudication process
Babbel and Meyer – Encouraging enrollment in private disability insurance
Burton and Guo – Improving the interaction between SSDI and Workers’ Compensation programs
Perriello – Improving health coverage for workers with disabilities
Jim McCrery
Earl Pomeroy
Mark Washawsky, Visiting Scholar, Mercatus Center of George Mason University
Alan Cohen, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress