Wednesday, April 22, 2009

CBO presentation on decline in Social Security surplus

The Congressional Budget Office yesterday made a presentation to the Social Security Advisory Board regarding the recession-induced decline in the Social Security surplus. I don't believe the presentation is available online, but I've uploaded a copy here.

The viewer below shows the charts, which focus on tax revenues and costs, the total Social Security surplus (including interest) and the primary surplus (which does not include interest payments) and the trust fund balance. Each chart tells the same story in a different way: that Social Security's finances have received a pretty significant hit from the recession. Cash flow-wise, it puts the program three to four years behind where it otherwise would have been. The impact on trust fund solvency will depend upon a combination of these reduced cash flows and changes in interest rates going forward.

SSAB Presentation - 2009 04 - Trust Fund Charts

1 comment:

timnuccio said...

This is why we have needed a balanced or surplus budget for a long time. Inflation allows some deficit, and then when it falls too low, the budget runs an even nastier deficit than before.

If not for debt and deficits, the government would not have incentive to create more inflation than is necessary to keep people from stuffing currency in the mattress.