In lieu of publishing a separate report providing additional information about CBO’s long-term projections for Social Security, the agency is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.
Thursday, September 12, 2019
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Lots of data, but really little to know backup of it.
Adjusted by inflation, but benefits are calculated based on indexed wages. No US Treasury Rate paid on Trust fund for those periods of time were used. In simple terms the value of 1950, 1950, 1960 and later cohorts are not actually analyzed.
You cannot simply subtract two exponential equations linearly.
2034 is the wrong year for the trust fund exhaustion date. YEarly wage growth will not be 6% + until 2034. Even if this were the case, future benefits would also grow at 6% yearly. Pretty tough for the Trust fund to keep up when the the rate paid to the trust fund is around 4%. Add that not a single penny of new payroll tax revenue has been added to the OASI trust fund since 2010.
SS Trustees in 2083 projected 2060. A few years later it was 2029, then 2041 and back to 2031 and now 2034. The trustees keep changing the assumptions which changes everything. I use a 21 year moving average (US Treasury RAte, wage growth, inflation) and it seems to be the best at projecting past reality with present.
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