Presentation: "Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees"

This can be a bit wonky, but given the large differences between the CBO and Social Security Trustees' projections for the program's finances, it's worth taking a look. One thing that strikes me is that, while most of the gap can be explained through differences in economics and demographic assumptions, there's still a significant difference even after differing assumptions are accounted for. That residual presumably comes down to either more deeply embedded assumptions that CBO didn't analyze or differences in how the two teams put their models together.

Comparing CBO’s Long-Term Projections With Those of the Social Security Trustees

Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Chief of the Long-Term Analysis Unit in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, to the Social Security Advisory Board.

November 18, 2016