Over at National Review, Veronique de Rugy writes that the shift in the trust fund insolvency date from 2036 in the 2011 Trustees Report to 2033 in this year’s report is part of a broader trend where projections of the system’s financial health have grown worse over time.
She’s clearly right that things are not looking as good today as they had in the past (although the 2057 projection for the 1990 Trustees Report doesn’t seem right to me).
Nevertheless, my gut is that the guesses we make in a given year are about as good as they can be, given our ignorance regarding the future. We know that things will change from year to year, but they can get better as well as worse. Though if Social Security’s finances continue to worsen, maybe I’ll have to eat my words.