Thursday, September 3, 2009

New CBO Social Security projections: Deficits in 2010-11, permanent deficits by 2016

The Congressional Budget Office has produced updated projections for the Social Security program. The short story is that their projections of short-term cash flows have worsened somewhat. In March, CBO projected that Social Security would remain in positive cash flow through the end of 2016, then begin running deficits. The current projections show deficits for the years 2010 and 2011, then a return to surpluses in 2012 through 2015, and then deficits beginning in 2016.

CBO also projects that no COLAs will be paid for the years 2010 and 2012. In their March baseline they'd projected no COLA for 2012 as well, so there's a small change there.

Click here for a table on the OASI program, here for details on the DI program, and here for a table on system-wide financing.

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