Rasmussen Reports polling has interesting new survey data on public attitudes toward Social Security and Social Security reform. A plurality of likely voters surveyed in late December say that working-age Americans should be allowed to opt out of social security (46% to 38% opposed). Interestingly, however, almost the exact same percentages believe that Social Security is a good deal for current workers. This seems to imply that while Americans think workers should have the option to drop out of Social Security, many people wouldn't actually choose to exercise that option if allowed. This again is interesting, given that 55% of voters surveyed are either not very confident or not at all confident in receiving their promised Social Security benefits. Only 39 percent are somewhat or very confident in getting what they've been promised. While the cross-tabs aren't available online, it's likely that confidence is highest among those who are currently or about to retire, with younger Americans less confident in the system. The poll had mixed results for President-elect Obama's plans for Social Security reform. Consistent with other survey data, a majority of 60% favor applying the Social Security tax to earnings above the current payroll tax ceiling of $106,800 for 2009. Imposing a new payroll tax on earnings above $250,000 was the centerpiece of Obama's plans for Social Security, so these results indicate support for his proposal. However, 62% believe that workers paying more taxes should also be award more benefits. This is consistent with Social Security's historical practice, in which taxes and benefits have always been based on the same wage base, in effect meaning that higher taxes have always implied higher benefits. The problem for Obama's proposal of imposing a 2-4% tax on earnings above $250,000 is that it solves only around 15% of the long-term Social Security deficit Public attitudes toward Social Security and reform are obviously a mixed bag for both sides of the political aisle. While no solution will be easy, it may become easier by broadening the debate and opening a larger number of policy options for the public and Congress to think over. National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters Conducted December 21, 2008 By Rasmussen Reports 1) How confident are you that the Social Security system will pay you all promised retirement benefits during your lifetime? 13% Very confident 2) Should working Americans be allowed to opt out of Social Security and provide for their own retirement planning? 46% Yes 3) Is Social Security a good deal for working Americans today? 46% Yes 4) Currently, people pay Social Security taxes on the first $102,000 workers earn each year. People who make more than that do not pay Social Security taxes on salary and wages above that level. Should Social Security taxes be paid on ALL OR MOST OF THE income workers earn each year? 60% Yes 5) Should people who pay more in Social Security taxes receive more Social Security benefits when they retire? 62% Yes NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
even if no additional benefits are paid. If additional benefits were paid on the higher taxes, as past practice and public opinion seems to support, then the improvement in Social Security's finances would be even smaller. In others, the tax policy most consistent with public attitudes leaves a very large financing hole to be filled.
26% Somewhat confident
33% Not very confident
23% Not at all confident
4% Not sure
38% No
16% Not sure
37% No
18% Not sure
29% No
11% Not sure
22% No
16% Not sure
Monday, January 5, 2009
New polling on Social Security reform, and what it means for Obama’s reform plan
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
1 comment:
When I did poles in the 80's and 90's similar to the one identified here, I got different results. In the 80's the majority of the people supported social security out of pure ignorance . They also were taught early on in K-12 that Social Security was a great thing. The misconception and the "misguided" teachings of teachers has taken a toll. However, there is great news to report. When a person reads "Myths: The Political Tool of Choice", the number of those 46 and under who support Social Security plumets.
What I have found is that there are two distinct groups. Those over 50 tend to support Social Security even though they know it is a bad deal simply because they are close to retirement and those 46 and under who nearly 90% would opt out of SS if they could.
What this pole does not identify is if those surveyed were a normalized population (I assume it was) or if they were cherry picked to be under a particular age. I would assume the results are based on a normalized voting population which bodes well for getting rid of Social Security. The majority clearly do not favor it. This is the first step.
Question 4 Currently, people pay Social Security taxes on the first $102,000 workers earn each year. People who make more than that do not pay Social Security taxes on salary and wages above that level. Should Social Security taxes be paid on ALL OR MOST OF THE income workers earn each year? This assumes the person understands how the Benefit formula works. 99% of the people I have surveyed do not understand that the benefit is based only on wages subjected to SS-OASI taxes and that the benefit has no relationship to the taxes paid. Once they are told how it works, this answer changes dramatically.
Question 5 Should people who pay more in Social Security taxes receive more Social Security benefits when they retire? Clearly supports my position above. When they understand how SS-OASI benefits are calculated, then the answers to question 3 changes.
The problem with surveys like this is, it relies on the individual's knowledge of SS-OASI, which for the most part is very poor.
This is why congress likes to keep the electorate misinformed on Social Security. They can handle a divided front, but not a united front.
Post a Comment