New papers from the Social Science Research Network

"Social Security Trust Fund Cash Flows and Reserves"
Social Security Bulletin, 75(1): 1-34, 2015

DAVID PATTISON, Government of the United States of America - Social Security Administration
Email: david.h.pattison@ssa.gov

This article examines the Social Security trust fund reserves and cash flows and their interrelationships with the Treasury's cash management operations and the budget of the rest of the federal government. The article considers the extent to which the trust fund reserves and interest income reflect cash transactions between the trust funds and the public and are not, as some commenters have asserted, just accounting fictions. It also considers whether, under the Social Security system's self-financing framework, an improvement in trust fund finances can help relieve the accumulated debt commitments of the rest of the federal government.

"Longitudinal Patterns of Disability Program Participation and Mortality Across Childhood SSI Award Cohorts"
Social Security Bulletin. 75(1): 35-64, 2015

KALMAN RUPP, Government of the United States of America - Social Security Administration
Email: kalman.rupp@ssa.gov
JEFFREY HEMMETER, Government of the United States of America - Social Security Administration
Email: jeffrey.hemmeter@ssa.gov
PAUL S. DAVIES, Government of the United States of America - Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics
Email: paul.davies@ssa.gov

This article follows six annual cohorts of childhood Supplemental Security Income (SSI) disability awardees between 1980 and 2000, for a time horizon up to 30 years after initial SSI award, in many cases well into adulthood. The authors compare trajectories of successive awardee cohorts as the SSI program evolves from 1980 to recent years. The results show that the proportion of awardees in SSI-only status declines over the life cycle, with over half transitioning to other statuses roughly after 10 to 15 years. Many awardees transition from the SSI program to concurrent or Disability Insurance-only benefit status, and increasing proportions of awardees are deceased or off the rolls and alive. These patterns are common for all awardee cohorts, but there are major changes in trajectories across cohorts. Compared with the early cohorts, the more recent cohorts display sharper declines in mortality and steeper increases in the proportion off the disability rolls for other reasons. These two trends have opposite effects on the duration of disability program participation over the life cycle, with important policy implications.