Thursday, July 19, 2012

Upcoming events: Retirement and Savings Forum

Join us the morning of Tuesday, July, 24th at the Investment Company Institute...

For a Breakfast Meeting with Guest Speaker:

Jagadeesh  Gokhale

Jagadeesh Gokhale

Senior Fellow at Cato Institute

and author of

“State and local pension plans: funding status, asset management, and a look ahead."

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

8:30 a.m.

Investment Company Institute

1401 H St NW, 12th Floor

Washington, DC 20005

Dr. Gokhale is recognized internationally as an expert on entitlement reform, labor productivity and compensation, U.S. fiscal policy and the impact of fiscal policy on future generations.

He works with Cato's Project on Social Security Choice to develop reforms for programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Gokhale served in 2002 as a consultant to the U.S. Department of Treasury and in 2003 as a visiting scholar with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He was the senior economic adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland from 1990 to 2003.

Dr. Gokhale holds a Ph.D. in economics from Boston University and is currently a member of the Social Security Advisory Board.

RSVP

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Friday, July 13, 2012

Kotlikoff: How big is Social Security’s deficit, and how to fix it?

Writing for Investment News, Boston University economist Larry Kotlikoff explores the innards of the annual Social Security Trustees Report.

“Now that health care is off the front burner, it's time to fix Social Security. Social Security's trustees say the system needs only “modest changes.” In fact, the system is desperately broke.”

“The proof is buried deep in the trustees' own 2012 report in a complex table, numbered IV.B6. The system's actuaries prepare the report's tables. But what the trustees make of them is up to the trustees. Clearly this year, as in others, the trustees ignored table IV.B6. How else could they have come up with their blase statement that Congress should address Social Security's finances “in a timely way”?”

“Table IV.B6 is a long-run balance sheet for Social Security. It shows that the system's $88.9 trillion in liabilities exceed its $68.4 trillion in assets by $20.5 trillion.”

Click here to read more.

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Oops…

The Washington Post reports that:

“A new report says the Social Security Administration failed to properly record the deaths of 1.2 million Americans on a list that is distributed to federal agencies and private companies, making it likely that their families or others wrongly received benefits after they died.”

“The report released this week by the Social Security agency’s inspector general follows several audits that in recent years have found the government paid benefits from farm subsidies to Medicare years after the people designated to receive them died.”

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New Social Security paper from the NBER

When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules

by John B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov - #18210 (AG)

Abstract:

Social Security benefits may be commenced at any time between ages 62 and 70. As individuals who claim later can, on average, expect to receive benefits for a shorter period, an actuarial adjustment is made to the monthly benefit to reflect the age at which benefits are claimed. In earlier work (Shoven and Slavov, 2012), we investigated the actuarial fairness of this adjustment for individuals with average life expectancy for their cohort. We found that for current real interest rates, delaying is actuarially advantageous for a large subset of people, particularly for primary earners in married couples. In this paper, we quantify the degree of actuarial advantage or disadvantage for individuals whose mortality differs from the average. We find that at real interest rates close to zero, most households - even those with mortality rates that are twice the average - benefit from some delay, at least for the primary earner.

At real interest rates closer to their historical average, however, singles with mortality that is substantially greater than average do not benefit from delay; however, primary earners with high mortality can still improve the present value of the household's benefits through delay. We also investigate the extent to which the actuarial advantage of delay has grown since the early 1960s, when the choice of when to claim first became available, and we decompose this growth into three effects: (1) the effect of changes in Social Security's rules, (2) the effect of changes in the real interest rate, and (3) the effect of changes in life expectancy.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W18210?utm_campaign=ntw&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntw

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Thursday, July 5, 2012

New papers from the American Economic Association

 

(6) When They're Sixty-Four: Peer Effects and the Timing of Retirement

Kristine M. Brown and Ron A. Laschever

This paper examines the effect of peers on an individual's likelihood of retirement using an administrative dataset of all retirement-eligible Los Angeles teachers for the years 1998-2001. We use two large unexpected pension reforms that differentially impacted financial incentives within and across schools to construct an instrument for others' retirement decisions. Controlling for individual and school characteristics, we find that the retirement of an additional teacher in the previous year at the same school increases a teacher's own likelihood of retirement by 1.5-2 percentage points. We then explore some possible mechanisms through which this effect operates. (JEL H75, I21, J14, J26, J45)

Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials

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New papers from the Social Science Research Network

"Recovering an Institutional Memory: The Origins of the Modern Veterans Benefits System, 1914 to 1958"
5 Veterans L. Rev. (2013 Forthcoming)

JAMES D. RIDGWAY, The George Washington University Law School
Email: jridgway@law.gwu.edu

Tracing statutory and regulatory history in veterans law can be exceptionally difficult. Although judicial review has only been available for a little more than two decades, the modern veterans benefits system evolved -- more by happenstance than design -- from the system that was originally adopted to serve WWI veterans. Tracing key statutory and regulatory provisions to their true origin is not easy because much of the legislative and regulatory history for veterans law provisions in the United States Code and the Code of Federal Regulations is simply incorrect. Moreover, even if a provision were traced past the false origins provided to its true enactment, the language was often copied or adapted from an even older authority. This article provides guidance in understanding the true origins of the modern veterans benefits system and traces many key provisions to their antecedents under the Bureau of War Risk Insurance and the Pension Bureau.

"Social Security, Growth, and Welfare in Overlapping Generations Economies With or Without Annuities"

NEIL BRUCE, University of Washington - Department of Economics
Email: brucen@u.washington.edu
STEPHEN J. TURNOVSKY, University of Washington - Institute for Economic Research, CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
Email: sturn@u.washington.edu

We examine the impact of a stylized pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) Social Security program in an economy of overlapping generations with equilibrium growth. We adopt realistic mortality and other demographic assumptions and allow for the presence or absence of full life annuities. In all cases we find that steady state economies with PAYGO Social Security programs grow more slowly than those without. Also, we find that, for steady state economies having the same wage rate at the current time, initial all-inclusive wealth and lifetime expected utility are lower for households newly entering the economy with Social Security, and for all households subsequent. Growth and welfare are lower in economies without annuities, but the quantitative impact depends on how the financial wealth of decedents is distributed across the surviving population. With or without annuities, the presence of a PAYGO Social Security program reduces growth and welfare.

"Pension Funds and Herding Behavior; Reviewing the Controversy in the Academic Debate and Distilling Recommendations for Practitioners"

KEVIN OTJES, UWV
Email: kevinotjes@hotmail.com
FRANK JAN DE GRAAF, Hanze University of Applied Sciences, University of Amsterdam - Department of Business Studies (BS)
Email: frankjandegraaf@xs4all.nl

Within this article we discuss herding behavior of pension funds. Observers have suggested that pension funds are 1) more likely to herd than other (institutional) investors and by some scholars that 2) due to its sheer size, herding behavior of pension funds could have a negative effect on economic stability. We investigate the consistency of the recommendations to practitioners. Findings are that much of the prevailing academic controversy can be aligned by taking into account the specific circumstances under which the arguments hold true. More long term research on the response of pension funds to fads and fashions in investment could further clarify cognitive biases in the investment policies of pension funds. Also a contingency perspective is needed in academic literature if we are to make valuable and applicable recommendations.

"First Time Tragedy...Pooled Registered Pension Plans"

S. B. ARCHER, York University - Osgoode Hall Law School, Koskie Minsky LLP
Email: sarcher@osgoode.yorku.ca

The Canadian Federal Government has proposed a new private-sector retirement savings scheme to address the widely-recognized under-saving of Canadian employees for retirement. The proposed scheme emphasizes voluntariness in a choice architecture associated with the “nudge” approach to regulation often associated with Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler. The scheme is critiqued from a public policy perspective and compared to an alternative policy option, expanding a publically-administered occupational retirement savings scheme, the Canada Pension Plan. The author argues that despite evidence that expanding the Canada Pension Plan would be more efficient at achieving policy objectives, the Federal Government has promoted the private-sector scheme instead. The author speculates that reasons for this decision are not strongly rooted in economic or legal arguments, but instead in a political anxiety over mandatory public programs. The author concludes that if experience in other jurisdictions is any indication, the proposed scheme will not meet the stated policy objectives.

"Lifecycle Funds and Wealth Accumulation for Retirement: Evidence for a More Conservative Asset Allocation as Retirement Approaches"
Financial Services Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, Forthcoming

WADE PFAU, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
Email: wpfau@grips.ac.jp

A line of recent studies cast doubt on the efficacy of the lifecycle investment strategy, which calls for switching into a more conservative investment portfolio as retirement approaches, as a suitable way to provide for the retirement needs of workers with defined-contribution pensions. After comparing simulation outcomes for lifecycle and fixed asset allocation strategies, we determine that the lifecycle strategy can be justified even in a framework including only financial wealth. We find that investors with very reasonable amounts of risk aversion may prefer the lifecycle approach, despite the tendency for aggressive fixed allocation strategies to produce larger expected wealth.

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Register now for the RRC annual conference

Register Now: 14th Annual Conference of the Retirement Research Consortium, August 2-3, 2012 

"Current Perspectives on Retirement Policy"

To be held at the:

National Press Club
529 14th Street, NW
13th Floor
Washington, DC 20045

Click here for the Preliminary Program

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