tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334408760351487944.post4398757617313525086..comments2023-11-12T06:43:00.060-05:00Comments on Notes on Social Security Reform: Rep. Anthony Weiner on Social Security “Hype”Andrew G. Biggshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16617460431856611873noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334408760351487944.post-18058847638246249662010-05-27T15:05:14.837-04:002010-05-27T15:05:14.837-04:00In many ways, short-term projections are harder th...In many ways, short-term projections are harder than long-term ones. While I can't predict the weather next week - it might rain, it might not -- I can predict with great confidence that six months from now it will be colder than it is today. The same holds for demographics. And for Social Security, at least, the broad trends matter a lot more than annual fluctuations. So yes, like others the SSA actuaries can't perfectly predict the business cycle. But it's not clear why that ability -- which is very distinct from others -- matters all that much in this context.Andrew G. Biggshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16617460431856611873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334408760351487944.post-39857959351930005202010-05-27T14:30:00.078-04:002010-05-27T14:30:00.078-04:00Weiner is right that "Short-term projections ...Weiner is right that "Short-term projections of Social Security are also inherently flawed" even if he oversimplifies it. A look back at 20 years worth of reports shows that boom times are fully capable of significantly outperforming the LC forecast and recessions are fully capable of underperforming HC projections. For whatever reason, the reports do not make an accurate assessment of the volatility. They do not make an realistic assessment of the uncertainty.<br /><br />I think they try to account for this, but the data show that they fail.<br /><br />I can't assess their record for the longterm, but why should I believe it it is any better?<br /><br />There is certainly much room for discussion about how to close the gap (caused by the fact that is more expensive to live longer), but it is going to require phased adjustments, so any now and forever solution contains a fair amount of hype.Arnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00796151499106650732noreply@blogger.com